Roberto González Bernal

Tómenlo como una especulación. Esto se los digo de inicio para que tomen las cosas con calma y en su justa dimensión. Y lo digo porque luego hay mucho apasionado a los que no les gusta que haya movimientos favorables sobre candidatos que no son de su preferencia política y, en consecuencia, dado su bajo nivel de tolerancia política, tienden a insultar y decir una serie de sandeces.
Y esto que les comparto no es una simple idea que se me viene a la mente, sino que es parte de lo que está sucediendo a nivel nacional. Movimiento ciudadano ya va pegado a Andrés Manuel López Obrador para el proyecto presidencial, tal como lo dije ayer. Y lo interesante es que tal parece que en Nayarit sí habrá impactos en el mismo sentido.
Según información que sale de la gente cercana a Raúl Mejía, es posible que durante en la fecha cercana al próximo debate o durante el mismo debate, se dé la declinación de Raúl Mejía a favor de Miguel Ángel Navarro Quintero. Esta aseveración puede tener cierta dosis de veracidad en la medida, como lo digo insistentemente, de los movimientos nacionales.
Pero también hay otros elementos que pueden hacernos pensar que si es posible tal decisión. ¿Cuáles elementos? Por un lado, está la información en el sentido de que Raúl Mejía ya no está siendo considerado por los electores como el posible gobernador, los números de todas las encuestadoras no le alcanzan e incluso esta misma gente señalan que los punteros son, sin duda alguna Toño, Cota y Navarro. Por eso mismo, bajo ese escenario, dicen que habría que buscar la mejor rentabilidad política en este proceso y, por supuesto, la mejor rentabilidad política, la mayor raja política es sumarse a Navarro para hacerlo gobernador y al mismo tiempo se suben al carro de Andrés Manuel quien ya casi no tiene enemigo al frente en su carrera por la silla presidencial.
Un pacto de esa naturaleza hace ganador a Raúl Mejía por todos los cuatro costados. Para empezar, ya tiene ganadas las posiciones pluris de diputado y de regidor, situación que por supuesto ya tiene asegurada con los votos que resulten para el partido Movimiento Ciudadano. Luego también, es posible que Dante Delgado le tenga asegurada a él mismo su diputación o senaduría federal para el 2018. Y por si eso no fuera suficiente, puede pactar una parte del gabinete gubernamental estatal llegando Navarro al gobierno del estado. O sea, pues, la declinación de Raúl Mejía para favorecer a Navarro le daría excelentes resultados políticos a dicho candidato.
No obtendría los mimos resultados políticos si la opción fuera declinar a favor de Toño Echevarría, simple y sencillamente porque los panistas y perredistas no tienen candidato ganador a la presidencia de la república y porque Dante Delgado no le aseguraría nada si lo traiciona apoyando a un candidato que no es del corral de MORENA.
¿Qué tanto puede aumentar en las preferencias electorales el hecho de que Raúl se sume a Navarro? No lo podemos decir porque nadie es dueño de la voluntad de los votantes, pero tampoco podemos afirmar el caso contrario, es decir, no podemos afirmar que no tienen ninguna incidencia. Desde mi punto de vista personal afirmo que sin duda alguna le suma votos, ¿cuántos? No se sabe, pero definitivamente que tiene un efecto positivo sobre la percepción ciudadana en el sentido de que Navarro tiende a convertirse en un candidato más competitivo.
Otro de los posibles efectos que se puedan dar es precisamente que al calor de esta declinación haya otras y esto se convierta en una bola de nieve imparable. En ese contexto, Navarro debe arreciar sus movimientos políticos para demostrar que su músculo político crece, tal como ya lo viene haciendo Manuel Cota con cierres de triunfo en cada municipio. Si no hace eso, difícilmente una declinación modificará sustancialmente la percepción ciudadana acerca de que Navarro es ganador. Está obligado a hacer eso.
Pero mientras son peras o manzanas, las cosas ya están a punto de turrón y en pocos días, muy cercanos al debate próximo el día 22 de mayo, estaremos siendo testigos de ese tipo de acciones o no en su caso. Claro, también Raúl será criticado por su declinación porque dijo abiertamente que “voy derecho y no me quito” y si se quita pues eso le costará un poco en su credibilidad social, lo cual es irrelevante pues ya no sería candidato.
¿Declinarían los candidatos a presidente municipales y diputados de Movimiento Ciudadano sobre los de MORENA? No lo creo, esos son los que asegurarían los votos para el partido, es más, hasta puede suceder que algunos de ellos ganen. Pero mientras todo eso puede suceder, esperemos el tiempo del debate.
PD. Ivideliza sigue ascendente. El periódico El Economista, serio y muy profesional, ya señaló que nadie la alcanza.


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